Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Thai Wah Public Company Limited (TWPC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.21 - $1.75$1.47
Multi-Stage$2.28 - $2.50$2.39
Blended Fair Value$1.93
Current Price$2.54
Upside-24.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.31%-6.51%0.090.220.220.130.130.320.320.210.360.00
YoY Growth---57.84%-0.01%61.08%0.08%-58.34%0.40%52.43%-41.66%4,091,037.75%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.82%5.96%4.44%1.97%2.75%11.47%3.88%1.68%3.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)152.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.4619.0411.42
Cash Retained (M)102.20102.20102.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.46-19.04-11.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.7383.1690.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)880.42880.42880.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate-2.93%-1.93%-0.93%
Fair Value$1.21$1.47$1.75
Upside / Downside-52.26%-42.01%-31.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)152.32149.38146.49143.66140.89138.16142.31
Payout Ratio32.91%44.33%55.74%67.16%78.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.1366.2281.6696.49110.71124.35131.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate-2.93%-1.93%-0.93%
Year 1 PV (M)60.6061.2361.85
Year 2 PV (M)68.4169.8271.25
Year 3 PV (M)73.9876.2978.64
Year 4 PV (M)77.6980.9484.29
Year 5 PV (M)79.8684.0688.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,642.801,729.181,819.16
Equity Value (M)2,003.332,101.512,203.63
Shares Outstanding (M)880.42880.42880.42
Fair Value$2.28$2.39$2.50
Upside / Downside-10.42%-6.03%-1.46%

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