Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited (TVO-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.03 - $57.83$44.39
Multi-Stage$67.46 - $74.12$70.73
Blended Fair Value$57.56
Current Price$25.25
Upside127.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.23%-0.03%1.451.011.001.911.501.371.781.891.961.68
YoY Growth--43.61%0.94%-47.61%27.29%9.97%-23.06%-6.23%-3.29%16.24%15.62%
Dividend Yield--6.75%5.41%3.78%6.73%5.20%6.68%7.30%6.08%6.43%7.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,474.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,537.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)937.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)494.96309.35185.61
Cash Retained (M)937.64937.64937.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-494.96-309.35-185.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)442.68628.29752.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)887.78887.78887.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.710.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.731.731.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.710.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.232.442.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.23%0.77%1.77%
Fair Value$34.03$44.39$57.83
Upside / Downside34.79%75.79%129.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,474.822,493.932,513.182,532.592,552.152,571.862,649.01
Payout Ratio62.11%67.69%73.27%78.85%84.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,537.171,688.141,841.351,996.822,154.592,314.672,450.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.23%0.77%1.77%
Year 1 PV (M)1,572.191,587.951,603.70
Year 2 PV (M)1,597.081,629.261,661.75
Year 3 PV (M)1,612.971,661.961,711.93
Year 4 PV (M)1,620.861,686.831,754.79
Year 5 PV (M)1,621.681,704.601,790.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,867.6954,519.6357,278.94
Equity Value (M)59,892.4862,790.2165,801.98
Shares Outstanding (M)887.78887.78887.78
Fair Value$67.46$70.73$74.12
Upside / Downside167.18%180.11%193.54%

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