Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.01 - $239.18$103.59
Multi-Stage$38.92 - $42.51$40.68
Blended Fair Value$72.14
Current Price$56.52
Upside27.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.77%18.84%0.880.840.770.450.330.300.280.250.230.19
YoY Growth--5.09%9.77%71.38%36.84%7.35%10.61%9.91%9.45%18.59%22.65%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.61%1.63%0.96%0.91%1.83%1.41%1.99%1.66%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,105.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)483.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)621.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.02138.1482.88
Cash Retained (M)621.53621.53621.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.02-138.14-82.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)400.51483.40538.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)534.69534.69534.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.901.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.900.900.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.901.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.651.811.91
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$61.01$103.59$239.18
Upside / Downside7.94%83.28%323.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,105.091,176.921,253.421,334.891,421.661,514.061,559.49
Payout Ratio43.76%53.01%62.25%71.50%80.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)483.55623.83780.31954.481,148.011,362.661,442.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)570.30575.71581.11
Year 2 PV (M)652.14664.56677.10
Year 3 PV (M)729.25750.19771.52
Year 4 PV (M)801.85832.69864.40
Year 5 PV (M)870.10912.13955.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,187.1918,017.3418,879.25
Equity Value (M)20,810.8321,752.6122,729.15
Shares Outstanding (M)534.69534.69534.69
Fair Value$38.92$40.68$42.51
Upside / Downside-31.14%-28.02%-24.79%

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