Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

TPBI Public Company Limited (TPBI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.04 - $8.02$6.40
Multi-Stage$9.71 - $10.67$10.18
Blended Fair Value$8.29
Current Price$3.00
Upside176.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.200.000.250.000.000.380.580.520.48
YoY Growth--25.08%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-33.46%11.11%8.01%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.28%5.04%0.00%5.91%0.00%0.00%7.69%4.36%3.55%3.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.9225.5715.34
Cash Retained (M)79.3879.3879.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.92-25.57-15.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.4653.8164.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)417.06417.06417.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Fair Value$5.04$6.40$8.02
Upside / Downside68.04%113.26%167.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.58205.00205.41205.83206.24206.66212.86
Payout Ratio61.20%66.96%72.72%78.48%84.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.20137.26149.37161.53173.74186.00196.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Year 1 PV (M)127.09128.37129.65
Year 2 PV (M)128.06130.65133.27
Year 3 PV (M)128.22132.14136.13
Year 4 PV (M)127.69132.92138.30
Year 5 PV (M)126.57133.08139.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,413.653,589.203,771.91
Equity Value (M)4,051.274,246.364,449.13
Shares Outstanding (M)417.06417.06417.06
Fair Value$9.71$10.18$10.67
Upside / Downside223.80%239.39%255.59%

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