Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$260.52 - $567.38$373.33
Multi-Stage$185.76 - $203.05$194.25
Blended Fair Value$283.79
Current Price$134.95
Upside110.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.97%0.00%0.930.910.890.770.570.640.620.390.000.00
YoY Growth--2.55%2.45%16.02%35.41%-11.08%3.14%59.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.67%0.89%1.29%0.96%1.23%1.39%1.04%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,346.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,250.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)269.30168.31100.99
Cash Retained (M)1,250.121,250.121,250.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-269.30-168.31-100.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)980.821,081.811,149.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.12100.12100.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.8010.8111.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.8010.8111.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.7611.7712.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$260.52$373.33$567.38
Upside / Downside93.05%176.64%320.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,346.491,434.011,527.221,626.491,732.211,844.801,900.15
Payout Ratio7.16%23.73%40.29%56.86%73.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.37340.23615.38924.871,271.991,660.321,757.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)306.79309.70312.61
Year 2 PV (M)500.37509.90519.53
Year 3 PV (M)678.12697.58717.42
Year 4 PV (M)840.97873.32906.58
Year 5 PV (M)989.851,037.661,087.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,281.5916,019.7016,786.06
Equity Value (M)18,597.7019,447.8620,329.49
Shares Outstanding (M)100.12100.12100.12
Fair Value$185.76$194.25$203.05
Upside / Downside37.65%43.94%50.47%

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