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Definitive Analysis

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Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,357.48 - $15,418.93$8,394.96
Multi-Stage$5,789.54 - $6,332.53$6,056.01
Blended Fair Value$7,225.49
Current Price$2,780.00
Upside159.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.32%8.51%178.50167.60149.97126.00113.03109.22134.1397.8497.5673.88
YoY Growth--6.50%11.76%19.02%11.48%3.49%-18.57%37.09%0.29%32.04%-6.31%
Dividend Yield--7.41%4.77%3.69%2.75%3.30%3.46%3.41%2.72%2.36%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,758,000.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,047,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)711,000.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,351,600.002,719,750.001,631,850.00
Cash Retained (M)711,000.00711,000.00711,000.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,351,600.00-2,719,750.00-1,631,850.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3,640,600.00-2,008,750.00-920,850.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99,061.7899,061.7899,061.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-36.75-20.28-9.30
LTM Dividend per Share212.46212.46212.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share-36.75-20.28-9.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend175.71192.19203.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Fair Value$5,357.48$8,394.96$15,418.93
Upside / Downside92.72%201.98%454.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,758,000.0022,687,996.9423,657,744.5224,668,941.7825,723,360.4126,822,847.7927,627,533.22
Payout Ratio96.73%95.39%94.04%92.69%91.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,047,000.0021,641,124.9222,247,587.2422,866,356.2023,497,375.8524,140,563.0125,555,468.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Year 1 PV (M)20,094,973.2220,289,551.9120,484,130.60
Year 2 PV (M)19,182,186.9019,555,465.8519,932,341.84
Year 3 PV (M)18,307,108.8518,844,075.5219,391,440.71
Year 4 PV (M)17,468,264.6418,154,732.7118,861,237.34
Year 5 PV (M)16,664,235.4617,486,806.8818,341,544.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)481,805,615.43505,588,256.36530,300,917.92
Equity Value (M)573,522,384.50599,918,889.23627,311,613.37
Shares Outstanding (M)99,061.7899,061.7899,061.78
Fair Value$5,789.54$6,056.01$6,332.53
Upside / Downside108.26%117.84%127.79%

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