Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Thai Life Insurance Public Company Limited (TLI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.63 - $14.81$12.04
Multi-Stage$20.65 - $22.72$21.67
Blended Fair Value$16.85
Current Price$10.00
Upside68.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS32.35%0.00%0.500.300.230.200.120.120.120.120.090.00
YoY Growth--66.65%29.62%17.37%60.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%33.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.38%3.31%1.82%1.23%0.77%0.77%0.77%0.77%0.58%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,107.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,725.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,382.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,421.571,513.48908.09
Cash Retained (M)6,382.496,382.496,382.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,421.57-1,513.48-908.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,960.924,869.005,474.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,464.1611,464.1611,464.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-1.87%-0.87%0.13%
Fair Value$9.63$12.04$14.81
Upside / Downside-3.66%20.44%48.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,107.8512,002.3611,897.7911,794.1411,691.3811,589.5211,937.21
Payout Ratio47.29%55.83%64.37%72.91%81.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,725.366,700.817,658.838,599.649,523.4810,430.5711,041.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-1.87%-0.87%0.13%
Year 1 PV (M)6,214.686,278.016,341.34
Year 2 PV (M)6,587.876,722.826,859.14
Year 3 PV (M)6,860.477,072.367,288.56
Year 4 PV (M)7,046.297,337.947,638.55
Year 5 PV (M)7,157.557,529.767,917.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)202,885.56213,436.14224,421.14
Equity Value (M)236,752.41248,377.02260,466.02
Shares Outstanding (M)11,464.1611,464.1611,464.16
Fair Value$20.65$21.67$22.72
Upside / Downside106.52%116.66%127.20%

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