Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.61 - $645.22$248.46
Multi-Stage$87.29 - $95.39$91.27
Blended Fair Value$169.86
Current Price$140.14
Upside21.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.99%13.47%1.461.311.181.110.250.950.820.680.580.48
YoY Growth--11.05%10.83%6.96%350.30%-74.06%16.15%20.75%17.37%19.61%16.82%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.38%1.50%1.81%0.35%1.96%1.51%1.63%1.46%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,119.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,793.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,326.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,023.80639.88383.93
Cash Retained (M)3,326.003,326.003,326.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,023.80-639.88-383.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,302.202,686.132,942.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,131.001,131.001,131.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.042.382.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.591.591.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.042.382.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.623.964.19
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$141.61$248.46$645.22
Upside / Downside1.05%77.30%360.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,119.005,451.745,806.106,183.496,585.427,013.477,223.88
Payout Ratio35.03%46.02%57.02%68.01%79.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,793.002,508.953,310.394,205.435,202.836,312.136,682.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,297.092,318.862,340.63
Year 2 PV (M)2,774.922,827.782,881.13
Year 3 PV (M)3,227.503,320.153,414.56
Year 4 PV (M)3,655.793,796.383,940.99
Year 5 PV (M)4,060.724,256.864,460.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,707.0286,701.8090,849.47
Equity Value (M)98,723.05103,221.83107,887.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,131.001,131.001,131.00
Fair Value$87.29$91.27$95.39
Upside / Downside-37.71%-34.88%-31.93%

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