Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Textainer Group Holdings Limited (TGH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.83 - $304.26$171.28
Multi-Stage$257.43 - $283.40$270.16
Blended Fair Value$220.72
Current Price$49.20
Upside348.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%-3.77%1.671.550.520.000.000.000.000.682.212.50
YoY Growth--7.31%196.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-69.44%-11.79%2.35%
Dividend Yield--3.39%4.83%1.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.41%14.88%8.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)133.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.9325.5815.35
Cash Retained (M)133.73133.73133.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.93-25.58-15.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.79108.14118.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.6042.6042.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.182.542.78
LTM Dividend per Share1.671.671.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.182.542.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.844.204.44
WACC / Discount Rate4.59%4.59%4.59%
Growth Rate1.08%2.08%3.08%
Fair Value$110.83$171.28$304.26
Upside / Downside125.27%248.12%518.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.67208.93213.29217.73222.27226.90233.71
Payout Ratio34.66%45.73%56.80%67.86%78.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.9495.55121.14147.76175.44204.21216.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.59%4.59%4.59%
Growth Rate1.08%2.08%3.08%
Year 1 PV (M)90.4691.3592.25
Year 2 PV (M)108.58110.74112.92
Year 3 PV (M)125.39129.15132.99
Year 4 PV (M)140.96146.62152.45
Year 5 PV (M)155.33163.17171.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,345.1310,867.0611,409.86
Equity Value (M)10,965.8511,508.1012,071.78
Shares Outstanding (M)42.6042.6042.60
Fair Value$257.43$270.16$283.40
Upside / Downside423.24%449.11%476.01%

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