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Definitive Analysis

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Tetragon Financial Group Limited (TFG.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$197.81 - $483.38$294.75
Multi-Stage$276.94 - $304.48$290.45
Blended Fair Value$292.60
Current Price$16.05
Upside1,723.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.50%-14.46%0.240.250.260.260.340.490.520.520.750.94
YoY Growth---6.87%-2.10%-1.65%-21.17%-31.47%-5.68%0.64%-31.09%-20.07%-17.20%
Dividend Yield--1.60%2.60%2.49%2.95%3.42%6.65%4.00%3.98%6.11%9.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)857.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)829.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)171.49107.1864.31
Cash Retained (M)829.00829.00829.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-171.49-107.18-64.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)657.51721.82764.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91.5891.5891.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.187.888.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.187.888.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.498.198.66
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Fair Value$197.81$294.75$483.38
Upside / Downside1,132.48%1,736.47%2,911.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)857.45883.59910.54938.30966.91996.391,026.28
Payout Ratio3.32%20.65%37.99%55.33%72.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.45182.50345.92519.13702.59896.75949.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)170.64172.31173.98
Year 2 PV (M)302.41308.37314.38
Year 3 PV (M)424.35436.94449.79
Year 4 PV (M)536.98558.34580.33
Year 5 PV (M)640.83672.85706.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,285.3024,448.7725,658.28
Equity Value (M)25,360.5126,597.5827,882.90
Shares Outstanding (M)91.5891.5891.58
Fair Value$276.94$290.45$304.48
Upside / Downside1,625.46%1,709.63%1,797.08%

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