Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Transcontinental Inc. (TCL-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.29 - $31.81$25.58
Multi-Stage$46.25 - $50.80$48.48
Blended Fair Value$37.03
Current Price$19.27
Upside92.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.37%4.72%0.920.920.920.930.920.900.810.720.670.62
YoY Growth---0.77%-0.13%-0.26%0.51%2.50%10.79%12.64%8.36%7.46%7.17%
Dividend Yield--5.01%6.83%6.22%4.39%4.33%5.78%3.88%2.90%3.07%3.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)176.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)159.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.2022.0013.20
Cash Retained (M)16.8016.8016.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.20-22.00-13.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-18.40-5.203.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.4584.4584.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.22-0.060.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.891.891.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.22-0.060.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.821.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-1.63%-0.63%0.37%
Fair Value$20.29$25.58$31.81
Upside / Downside5.29%32.75%65.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)176.00174.88173.77172.67171.58170.49175.60
Payout Ratio90.45%90.36%90.27%90.18%90.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)159.20158.03156.87155.72154.58153.44162.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-1.63%-0.63%0.37%
Year 1 PV (M)146.96148.46149.95
Year 2 PV (M)135.67138.44141.24
Year 3 PV (M)125.24129.10133.03
Year 4 PV (M)115.61120.39125.31
Year 5 PV (M)106.73112.26118.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,275.753,445.683,622.59
Equity Value (M)3,905.964,094.324,290.14
Shares Outstanding (M)84.4584.4584.45
Fair Value$46.25$48.48$50.80
Upside / Downside140.02%151.59%163.63%

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