Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SVOA Public Company Limited (SVOA.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.06 - $5.45$4.07
Multi-Stage$4.82 - $5.30$5.05
Blended Fair Value$4.56
Current Price$1.40
Upside225.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.98%11.77%0.040.070.060.050.040.030.050.010.060.01
YoY Growth---48.58%22.41%16.00%25.00%33.16%-34.70%228.57%-75.00%330.77%8.33%
Dividend Yield--3.73%3.59%2.48%1.50%1.98%4.55%3.90%0.82%4.09%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)212.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)167.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.5826.6115.97
Cash Retained (M)167.34167.34167.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.58-26.61-15.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.76140.73151.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)947.00947.00947.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate0.88%1.88%2.88%
Fair Value$3.06$4.07$5.45
Upside / Downside118.80%190.79%289.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)212.89216.88220.95225.10229.32233.62240.63
Payout Ratio21.40%35.12%48.84%62.56%76.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.5576.16107.91140.82174.93210.26222.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate0.88%1.88%2.88%
Year 1 PV (M)70.6271.3272.02
Year 2 PV (M)92.7694.6196.47
Year 3 PV (M)112.23115.60119.04
Year 4 PV (M)129.26134.46139.82
Year 5 PV (M)144.05151.33158.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,014.304,217.254,428.34
Equity Value (M)4,563.214,784.575,014.59
Shares Outstanding (M)947.00947.00947.00
Fair Value$4.82$5.05$5.30
Upside / Downside244.19%260.88%278.23%

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