Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Super Retail Group Limited (SUL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.32 - $403.50$280.72
Multi-Stage$51.60 - $56.32$53.92
Blended Fair Value$167.32
Current Price$14.24
Upside1,074.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS36.75%13.07%1.181.000.760.810.520.250.420.400.370.36
YoY Growth--17.84%31.17%-6.10%56.29%110.85%-41.88%5.45%8.14%3.54%4.07%
Dividend Yield--8.29%7.37%6.68%9.58%4.03%3.07%5.11%5.02%4.59%4.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)461.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)424.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.3857.7434.64
Cash Retained (M)37.3037.3037.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.38-57.74-34.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)-55.08-20.442.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)227.66227.66227.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.24-0.090.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.871.871.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.24-0.090.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102.32$280.72$403.50
Upside / Downside618.57%1,871.34%2,733.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)461.90491.92523.90557.95594.22632.84651.83
Payout Ratio91.92%91.54%91.15%90.77%90.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)424.60450.31477.56506.45537.08569.56602.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)416.22420.16424.11
Year 2 PV (M)408.00415.77423.61
Year 3 PV (M)399.93411.41423.11
Year 4 PV (M)392.02407.09422.60
Year 5 PV (M)384.25402.81422.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,746.5110,217.2710,706.05
Equity Value (M)11,746.9312,274.5212,821.56
Shares Outstanding (M)227.66227.66227.66
Fair Value$51.60$53.92$56.32
Upside / Downside262.35%278.63%295.50%

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