Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.76 - $188.76$137.43
Multi-Stage$131.46 - $143.93$137.58
Blended Fair Value$137.51
Current Price$151.26
Upside-9.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.15%0.00%4.093.653.293.203.213.183.122.241.761.35
YoY Growth--11.93%11.25%2.57%-0.35%1.02%2.06%39.39%26.98%30.42%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%1.46%1.35%1.30%1.35%1.84%1.77%1.00%0.96%0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,222.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)724.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)498.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)244.54152.8491.70
Cash Retained (M)498.40498.40498.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-244.54-152.84-91.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.86345.56406.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.90178.90178.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.932.27
LTM Dividend per Share4.054.054.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.932.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.475.986.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.60%7.60%7.60%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$101.76$137.43$188.76
Upside / Downside-32.73%-9.14%24.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,222.701,260.801,300.091,340.601,382.371,425.451,468.21
Payout Ratio59.24%65.39%71.54%77.70%83.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)724.30824.44930.121,041.581,159.081,282.901,358.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.60%7.60%7.60%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)758.76766.19773.62
Year 2 PV (M)787.81803.32818.98
Year 3 PV (M)811.94836.02860.58
Year 4 PV (M)831.55864.60898.63
Year 5 PV (M)847.05889.35933.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,480.6220,453.3321,464.51
Equity Value (M)23,517.7224,612.8125,749.64
Shares Outstanding (M)178.90178.90178.90
Fair Value$131.46$137.58$143.93
Upside / Downside-13.09%-9.04%-4.84%

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