Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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iStar Inc. (STAR-PG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.70 - $39.05$32.66
Multi-Stage$76.02 - $83.93$79.89
Blended Fair Value$56.28
Current Price$25.97
Upside116.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.55%0.00%0.710.000.750.810.780.800.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-7.82%3.77%-2.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.72%0.00%2.55%4.46%5.66%9.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)259.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.8932.4319.46
Cash Retained (M)170.65170.65170.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.89-32.43-19.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)118.75138.21151.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)71.6871.6871.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.661.932.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.661.932.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.903.173.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-4.31%-3.31%-2.31%
Fair Value$26.70$32.66$39.05
Upside / Downside2.82%25.75%50.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)259.47250.88242.57234.54226.77219.26225.84
Payout Ratio34.23%45.39%56.54%67.69%78.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.82113.86137.15158.76178.80197.33208.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-4.31%-3.31%-2.31%
Year 1 PV (M)106.24107.35108.46
Year 2 PV (M)119.40121.91124.44
Year 3 PV (M)128.97133.05137.22
Year 4 PV (M)135.52141.28147.21
Year 5 PV (M)139.56147.00154.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,819.315,076.455,344.45
Equity Value (M)5,449.005,727.046,016.56
Shares Outstanding (M)71.6871.6871.68
Fair Value$76.02$79.89$83.93
Upside / Downside192.71%207.64%223.19%

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