Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Surya Pertiwi Tbk (SPTO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,607.10 - $7,877.89$4,142.48
Multi-Stage$2,832.12 - $3,102.15$2,964.61
Blended Fair Value$3,553.55
Current Price$660.00
Upside438.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.57%0.00%60.0050.0050.0035.0040.0038.0065.9377.7861.3754.24
YoY Growth--20.00%0.00%42.86%-12.50%5.26%-42.36%-15.24%26.75%13.14%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.76%8.93%9.09%6.31%8.44%6.28%6.87%6.54%5.16%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)279,669.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)190,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)89,269.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55,933.9334,958.7120,975.22
Cash Retained (M)89,269.6589,269.6589,269.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-55,933.93-34,958.71-20,975.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)33,335.7254,310.9568,294.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,700.002,700.002,700.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.3520.1225.29
LTM Dividend per Share70.5270.5270.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.3520.1225.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend82.8790.6395.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Fair Value$2,607.10$4,142.48$7,877.89
Upside / Downside295.02%527.65%1,093.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)279,669.65291,319.58303,454.80316,095.52329,262.81342,978.59353,267.95
Payout Ratio68.08%72.46%76.85%81.23%85.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)190,400.00211,102.57233,199.53256,771.12281,901.86308,680.73326,772.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Year 1 PV (M)196,417.54198,321.44200,225.35
Year 2 PV (M)201,883.65205,816.40209,787.08
Year 3 PV (M)206,826.60212,899.49219,090.11
Year 4 PV (M)211,273.44219,584.93228,139.28
Year 5 PV (M)215,250.03225,886.50236,939.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,615,066.466,941,946.597,281,622.98
Equity Value (M)7,646,717.718,004,455.368,375,804.15
Shares Outstanding (M)2,700.002,700.002,700.00
Fair Value$2,832.12$2,964.61$3,102.15
Upside / Downside329.11%349.18%370.02%

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