Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sonoco Products Company (SON)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.39 - $78.28$64.69
Multi-Stage$90.71 - $99.67$95.10
Blended Fair Value$79.90
Current Price$42.77
Upside86.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.63%4.68%2.051.991.881.801.741.711.621.541.471.39
YoY Growth--3.08%5.52%4.74%3.47%1.39%5.46%5.42%4.63%6.04%7.17%
Dividend Yield--4.33%3.45%3.10%2.87%2.68%3.65%2.61%3.26%2.81%2.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)627.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)206.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)420.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)125.5678.4847.09
Cash Retained (M)420.95420.95420.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-125.56-78.48-47.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)295.39342.47373.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.4399.4399.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.973.443.76
LTM Dividend per Share2.082.082.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.973.443.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.055.525.84
WACC / Discount Rate8.06%8.06%8.06%
Growth Rate-1.44%-0.44%0.56%
Fair Value$52.39$64.69$78.28
Upside / Downside22.49%51.25%83.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)627.81625.05622.30619.57616.84614.13632.56
Payout Ratio32.95%44.36%55.77%67.18%78.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)206.86277.27347.06416.22484.78552.72585.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.06%8.06%8.06%
Growth Rate-1.44%-0.44%0.56%
Year 1 PV (M)254.01256.58259.16
Year 2 PV (M)291.26297.20303.20
Year 3 PV (M)320.00329.83339.87
Year 4 PV (M)341.43355.49369.99
Year 5 PV (M)356.61375.08394.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,456.247,842.258,244.08
Equity Value (M)9,019.539,456.439,910.60
Shares Outstanding (M)99.4399.4399.43
Fair Value$90.71$95.10$99.67
Upside / Downside112.09%122.36%133.04%

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