Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,599.32 - $5,126.59$2,582.48
Multi-Stage$1,032.10 - $1,128.64$1,079.49
Blended Fair Value$1,830.98
Current Price$426.00
Upside329.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.55%-7.72%8.996.995.990.000.004.364.364.374.3617.45
YoY Growth--28.59%16.67%3,489,418.17%66.41%-100.00%0.01%-0.16%0.17%-75.00%-13.06%
Dividend Yield--2.28%1.33%1.13%0.00%0.00%1.13%0.44%0.50%0.34%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)989,245.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148,360.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)840,885.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)197,849.05123,655.6574,193.39
Cash Retained (M)840,885.10840,885.10840,885.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-197,849.05-123,655.65-74,193.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)643,036.05717,229.45766,691.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16,508.5716,508.5716,508.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share38.9543.4546.44
LTM Dividend per Share8.998.998.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share38.9543.4546.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend47.9452.4355.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,599.32$2,582.48$5,126.59
Upside / Downside275.43%506.22%1,103.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)989,245.241,053,546.181,122,026.681,194,958.411,272,630.711,355,351.711,396,012.26
Payout Ratio15.00%30.00%45.00%60.00%75.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148,360.14316,041.15504,893.87716,962.17954,466.181,219,816.541,291,311.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)288,116.16290,847.11293,578.07
Year 2 PV (M)419,612.15427,604.59435,672.42
Year 3 PV (M)543,210.53558,804.15574,693.38
Year 4 PV (M)659,259.60684,612.86710,690.45
Year 5 PV (M)768,094.07805,193.30843,712.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,360,130.4515,053,730.1215,773,875.48
Equity Value (M)17,038,422.9517,820,792.1318,632,222.21
Shares Outstanding (M)16,508.5716,508.5716,508.57
Fair Value$1,032.10$1,079.49$1,128.64
Upside / Downside142.28%153.40%164.94%

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