Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SISB Public Company Limited (SISB.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$165.19 - $194.63$182.39
Multi-Stage$66.30 - $72.71$69.44
Blended Fair Value$125.92
Current Price$14.50
Upside768.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%10.85%0.310.160.100.080.100.000.100.070.120.00
YoY Growth--93.75%60.00%31.58%-24.00%0.00%-100.00%28.57%-36.36%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.91%0.39%0.34%0.73%0.93%0.00%1.32%1.42%2.24%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)925.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)394.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)530.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.01115.6369.38
Cash Retained (M)530.26530.26530.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.01-115.63-69.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)345.25414.63460.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)945.25945.25945.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.440.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.440.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate4.56%4.56%4.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$165.19$182.39$194.63
Upside / Downside1,039.27%1,157.88%1,242.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)925.06985.191,049.231,117.431,190.061,267.411,305.44
Payout Ratio42.68%52.14%61.61%71.07%80.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)394.80513.70646.40794.17958.421,140.671,207.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.56%4.56%4.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)486.71491.32495.94
Year 2 PV (M)580.25591.30602.46
Year 3 PV (M)675.44694.83714.59
Year 4 PV (M)772.30802.01832.55
Year 5 PV (M)870.86912.93956.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,286.2762,149.8265,122.96
Equity Value (M)62,671.8465,642.2168,725.10
Shares Outstanding (M)945.25945.25945.25
Fair Value$66.30$69.44$72.71
Upside / Downside357.25%378.92%401.42%

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