Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SIG Group AG (SIGN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.66 - $247.72$232.15
Multi-Stage$39.70 - $43.40$41.52
Blended Fair Value$136.83
Current Price$15.68
Upside772.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.66%0.00%0.490.470.390.340.300.260.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.22%21.84%15.46%11.59%15.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.58%2.26%1.90%1.37%1.58%1.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)476.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)390.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.2259.5135.71
Cash Retained (M)85.6085.6085.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.22-59.51-35.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9.6226.0949.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)382.23382.23382.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.070.13
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.070.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$128.66$232.15$247.72
Upside / Downside720.56%1,380.52%1,479.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)476.10507.05540.00575.10612.49652.30671.87
Payout Ratio82.02%83.62%85.21%86.81%88.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)390.50423.97460.15499.24541.46587.07621.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)395.04398.78402.53
Year 2 PV (M)399.48407.09414.77
Year 3 PV (M)403.84415.43427.24
Year 4 PV (M)408.10423.80439.94
Year 5 PV (M)412.28432.19452.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,157.3613,792.8714,452.70
Equity Value (M)15,176.1015,870.1616,590.05
Shares Outstanding (M)382.23382.23382.23
Fair Value$39.70$41.52$43.40
Upside / Downside153.22%164.80%176.81%

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