Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.98 - $176.95$90.05
Multi-Stage$49.06 - $53.56$51.27
Blended Fair Value$70.66
Current Price$26.79
Upside163.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.95%6.21%1.071.041.000.950.870.840.780.500.590.46
YoY Growth--2.93%3.97%5.48%9.60%2.93%8.01%55.70%-14.69%28.26%-22.05%
Dividend Yield--4.01%4.07%2.82%2.88%2.26%2.77%2.88%2.04%2.43%2.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,024.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,013.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)204.94128.0976.85
Cash Retained (M)11.2511.2511.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-204.94-128.09-76.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)-193.69-116.84-65.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)478.60478.60478.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.24-0.14
LTM Dividend per Share2.122.122.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.24-0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.711.871.98
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Fair Value$55.98$90.05$176.95
Upside / Downside108.95%236.15%560.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,024.691,078.071,134.241,193.331,255.501,320.911,360.53
Payout Ratio98.90%97.12%95.34%93.56%91.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,013.451,047.051,081.401,116.491,152.301,188.821,258.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Year 1 PV (M)965.65974.92984.19
Year 2 PV (M)919.81937.54955.45
Year 3 PV (M)875.83901.28927.23
Year 4 PV (M)833.65866.12899.52
Year 5 PV (M)793.21832.00872.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,091.0520,024.7920,994.71
Equity Value (M)23,479.2024,536.6625,633.40
Shares Outstanding (M)478.60478.60478.60
Fair Value$49.06$51.27$53.56
Upside / Downside83.12%91.37%99.92%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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