Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shangri-La Hotel Public Company Limited (SHANG.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.11 - $14.03$12.07
Multi-Stage$16.98 - $18.61$17.78
Blended Fair Value$14.93
Current Price$53.50
Upside-72.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.97%-3.97%1.000.000.000.002.242.242.241.991.990.75
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%12.50%0.00%166.67%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--2.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.25%3.46%2.64%2.86%2.89%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.6728.5417.13
Cash Retained (M)98.3598.3598.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.67-28.54-17.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.6869.8081.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.46130.46130.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.540.62
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.540.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.62
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-3.38%-2.38%-1.38%
Fair Value$10.11$12.07$14.03
Upside / Downside-81.10%-77.43%-73.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.35222.90217.59212.41207.35202.40208.48
Payout Ratio56.93%63.54%70.16%76.77%83.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.00141.64152.66163.07172.90182.16192.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-3.38%-2.38%-1.38%
Year 1 PV (M)127.45128.77130.09
Year 2 PV (M)123.59126.17128.76
Year 3 PV (M)118.79122.52126.32
Year 4 PV (M)113.33118.09123.01
Year 5 PV (M)107.43113.11119.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,624.721,710.561,799.99
Equity Value (M)2,215.312,319.212,427.19
Shares Outstanding (M)130.46130.46130.46
Fair Value$16.98$17.78$18.61
Upside / Downside-68.26%-66.77%-65.22%

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