Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Stifel Financial Corp. (SF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.01 - $232.62$156.91
Multi-Stage$82.83 - $90.39$86.54
Blended Fair Value$121.73
Current Price$113.47
Upside7.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.27%0.00%1.721.481.210.600.420.380.310.120.000.00
YoY Growth--16.58%21.86%101.62%42.67%10.84%21.10%153.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.83%1.91%2.05%0.88%0.66%1.38%0.86%0.31%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)663.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)204.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)458.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)132.6882.9349.76
Cash Retained (M)458.98458.98458.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-132.68-82.93-49.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)326.30376.06409.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)110.41110.41110.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.963.413.71
LTM Dividend per Share1.851.851.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.963.413.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.815.265.56
WACC / Discount Rate10.07%10.07%10.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$111.01$156.91$232.62
Upside / Downside-2.17%38.28%105.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)663.42706.55752.47801.38853.47908.95936.22
Payout Ratio30.82%42.65%54.49%66.33%78.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)204.44301.36410.02531.53667.10818.05866.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.07%10.07%10.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)271.22273.79276.36
Year 2 PV (M)332.11338.44344.82
Year 3 PV (M)387.47398.60409.93
Year 4 PV (M)437.67454.50471.82
Year 5 PV (M)483.03506.36530.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,234.017,583.427,946.20
Equity Value (M)9,145.539,555.119,979.72
Shares Outstanding (M)110.41110.41110.41
Fair Value$82.83$86.54$90.39
Upside / Downside-27.00%-23.73%-20.34%

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