Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Seneca Foods Corporation (SENEA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.54 - $155.81$122.50
Multi-Stage$153.08 - $168.45$160.62
Blended Fair Value$141.56
Current Price$100.60
Upside40.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.987.494.49
Cash Retained (M)59.8659.8659.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.98-7.49-4.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.8852.3855.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.956.956.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.897.547.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.897.547.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.907.547.98
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate0.07%1.07%2.07%
Fair Value$95.54$122.50$155.81
Upside / Downside-5.03%21.77%54.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.8860.5261.1761.8362.4963.1665.05
Payout Ratio0.04%18.03%36.02%54.02%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0210.9122.0433.4045.0056.8460.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate0.07%1.07%2.07%
Year 1 PV (M)10.0710.1710.27
Year 2 PV (M)18.7619.1419.52
Year 3 PV (M)26.2427.0427.85
Year 4 PV (M)32.6333.9535.32
Year 5 PV (M)38.0439.9741.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)937.50985.291,035.01
Equity Value (M)1,063.241,115.571,169.96
Shares Outstanding (M)6.956.956.95
Fair Value$153.08$160.62$168.45
Upside / Downside52.17%59.66%67.44%

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