Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.83 - $204.61$123.84
Multi-Stage$58.69 - $64.06$61.33
Blended Fair Value$92.58
Current Price$76.09
Upside21.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.37%22.73%1.171.150.990.530.490.450.280.250.250.15
YoY Growth--2.00%15.94%88.52%6.81%10.59%57.66%11.03%1.72%71.35%-3.48%
Dividend Yield--2.06%2.05%1.83%1.24%0.99%3.36%1.87%1.34%1.25%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0816.309.78
Cash Retained (M)84.4084.4084.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.08-16.30-9.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.3268.1074.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.7534.7534.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.681.962.15
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.681.962.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.003.283.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.83$123.84$204.61
Upside / Downside8.86%62.76%168.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.40138.88147.90157.52167.76178.66184.02
Payout Ratio35.28%46.22%57.17%68.11%79.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.0064.1984.55107.29132.62160.79170.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)58.1658.7259.27
Year 2 PV (M)69.4270.7472.08
Year 3 PV (M)79.8282.1184.45
Year 4 PV (M)89.4092.8496.38
Year 5 PV (M)98.22102.97107.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,644.301,723.721,806.18
Equity Value (M)2,039.332,131.102,226.24
Shares Outstanding (M)34.7534.7534.75
Fair Value$58.69$61.33$64.06
Upside / Downside-22.87%-19.40%-15.80%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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