Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.56 - $148.65$110.21
Multi-Stage$129.12 - $141.60$135.24
Blended Fair Value$122.72
Current Price$70.69
Upside73.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.25%3.10%3.613.613.593.663.703.573.313.082.862.84
YoY Growth--0.06%0.48%-1.80%-1.04%3.62%7.90%7.38%7.56%0.69%6.80%
Dividend Yield--4.58%4.46%4.82%4.03%4.39%4.23%3.74%4.01%4.09%4.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.4510.916.55
Cash Retained (M)33.6333.6333.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.45-10.91-6.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.1722.7227.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.7514.7514.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.101.541.84
LTM Dividend per Share3.643.643.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.101.541.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.735.185.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Fair Value$82.56$110.21$148.65
Upside / Downside16.79%55.91%110.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.2789.1190.9892.8894.8396.8299.73
Payout Ratio61.47%67.17%72.88%78.59%84.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.6559.8666.3072.9979.9487.1492.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)55.4556.0056.54
Year 2 PV (M)56.9058.0359.17
Year 3 PV (M)58.0359.7661.54
Year 4 PV (M)58.8661.2363.66
Year 5 PV (M)59.4462.4465.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,616.361,697.891,782.69
Equity Value (M)1,905.031,995.352,089.16
Shares Outstanding (M)14.7514.7514.75
Fair Value$129.12$135.24$141.60
Upside / Downside82.65%91.31%100.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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