Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Runway Growth Finance Corp. 8.00% Notes due 2027 (RWAYZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.85 - $23.54$18.81
Multi-Stage$39.00 - $42.92$40.92
Blended Fair Value$29.87
Current Price$10.16
Upside193.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.750.000.480.200.220.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%-100.00%147.01%-11.31%473.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%14.37%0.00%3.57%1.52%1.71%0.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.986.864.12
Cash Retained (M)13.4513.4513.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.98-6.86-4.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.476.599.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.0437.0437.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.180.25
LTM Dividend per Share1.121.121.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.180.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.83%5.83%5.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.85$18.81$23.54
Upside / Downside46.17%85.17%131.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.9054.3553.8153.2752.7452.2153.78
Payout Ratio75.51%78.41%81.30%84.20%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.4642.6243.7544.8645.9446.9949.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.83%5.83%5.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39.8640.2740.68
Year 2 PV (M)38.2839.0739.86
Year 3 PV (M)36.7137.8539.01
Year 4 PV (M)35.1736.6338.13
Year 5 PV (M)33.6535.4037.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,260.631,326.281,394.63
Equity Value (M)1,444.311,515.491,589.53
Shares Outstanding (M)37.0437.0437.04
Fair Value$39.00$40.92$42.92
Upside / Downside283.84%302.76%322.43%

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