Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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RTX Corporation (RTX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.49 - $217.59$139.96
Multi-Stage$94.56 - $103.42$98.91
Blended Fair Value$119.44
Current Price$167.33
Upside-28.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.67%4.62%2.382.402.312.192.021.811.601.531.531.61
YoY Growth---0.68%3.55%5.78%8.24%11.88%12.53%4.63%0.24%-5.27%6.64%
Dividend Yield--1.80%2.45%2.36%2.21%2.61%3.25%2.04%2.07%2.31%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,592.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,462.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,130.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,318.40824.00494.40
Cash Retained (M)3,130.003,130.003,130.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,318.40-824.00-494.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,811.602,306.002,635.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,352.351,352.351,352.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.341.711.95
LTM Dividend per Share2.562.562.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.341.711.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.904.274.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate3.67%4.67%5.67%
Fair Value$96.49$139.96$217.59
Upside / Downside-42.34%-16.36%30.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,592.006,899.687,221.717,558.787,911.588,280.858,529.27
Payout Ratio52.52%60.01%67.51%75.01%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,462.004,140.814,875.445,669.646,527.347,452.767,889.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate3.67%4.67%5.67%
Year 1 PV (M)3,802.493,839.163,875.84
Year 2 PV (M)4,111.294,190.994,271.46
Year 3 PV (M)4,390.384,518.664,649.41
Year 4 PV (M)4,641.574,823.275,010.26
Year 5 PV (M)4,866.635,105.925,354.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)106,069.60111,285.11116,703.80
Equity Value (M)127,881.95133,763.13139,865.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1,352.351,352.351,352.35
Fair Value$94.56$98.91$103.42
Upside / Downside-43.49%-40.89%-38.19%

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