Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Rand Mining Limited (RND.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.20 - $4.93$4.01
Multi-Stage$7.23 - $7.95$7.58
Blended Fair Value$5.79
Current Price$1.81
Upside220.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.11%0.00%0.100.100.100.100.110.111.430.060.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-5.44%0.00%-92.59%2,300.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.53%6.62%8.26%7.58%7.29%5.13%42.62%2.20%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.962.471.48
Cash Retained (M)8.428.428.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.96-2.47-1.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.465.956.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.8756.8756.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.20$4.01$4.93
Upside / Downside76.78%121.27%172.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.7919.6019.4019.2119.0118.8219.39
Payout Ratio57.47%63.97%70.48%76.99%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.3812.5413.6714.7915.8816.9417.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.6511.7711.89
Year 2 PV (M)11.8112.0512.29
Year 3 PV (M)11.8612.2312.61
Year 4 PV (M)11.8412.3312.83
Year 5 PV (M)11.7412.3512.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)352.23370.58389.67
Equity Value (M)411.13431.30452.28
Shares Outstanding (M)56.8756.8756.87
Fair Value$7.23$7.58$7.95
Upside / Downside299.38%318.98%339.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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