Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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RLI Corp. (RLI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$177.95 - $759.39$438.74
Multi-Stage$92.21 - $100.72$96.39
Blended Fair Value$267.56
Current Price$65.22
Upside310.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-48.45%-32.55%0.031.523.951.460.950.930.901.231.321.29
YoY Growth---97.78%-61.60%169.60%53.95%2.70%3.00%-26.99%-7.08%2.43%-25.20%
Dividend Yield--0.04%2.05%5.94%2.65%1.70%2.11%2.50%3.88%4.41%3.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)353.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)239.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.6044.1326.48
Cash Retained (M)113.10113.10113.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.60-44.13-26.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.5068.9786.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.4592.4592.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.750.94
LTM Dividend per Share2.602.602.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.750.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.053.343.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.31%7.31%7.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$177.95$438.74$759.39
Upside / Downside172.85%572.71%1,064.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)353.02375.97400.40426.43454.15483.67498.18
Payout Ratio67.96%72.37%76.78%81.18%85.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)239.92272.09307.42346.20388.72435.30460.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.31%7.31%7.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)251.17253.55255.93
Year 2 PV (M)261.97266.96271.99
Year 3 PV (M)272.33280.15288.12
Year 4 PV (M)282.27293.13304.29
Year 5 PV (M)291.80305.89320.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,165.367,511.457,870.79
Equity Value (M)8,524.908,911.139,311.64
Shares Outstanding (M)92.4592.4592.45
Fair Value$92.21$96.39$100.72
Upside / Downside41.38%47.79%54.43%

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