Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Radian Group Inc. (RDN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.51 - $57.81$46.95
Multi-Stage$56.77 - $62.32$59.49
Blended Fair Value$53.22
Current Price$36.22
Upside46.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS136.34%55.28%1.061.010.940.720.680.010.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth--4.15%7.73%31.11%5.99%4,628.68%-3.69%-0.65%2.33%5.46%7.02%
Dividend Yield--3.19%3.09%4.26%3.23%2.91%0.11%0.07%0.08%0.08%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)576.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)147.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)428.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)115.2272.0143.21
Cash Retained (M)428.61428.61428.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-115.22-72.01-43.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.39356.60385.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.98143.98143.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.182.482.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.182.482.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.203.503.70
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Fair Value$37.51$46.95$57.81
Upside / Downside3.57%29.63%59.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)576.09581.08586.12591.20596.33601.50619.54
Payout Ratio25.60%38.48%51.36%64.24%77.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)147.48223.60301.03379.79459.89541.35573.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)204.25206.29208.34
Year 2 PV (M)251.18256.24261.34
Year 3 PV (M)289.48298.26307.22
Year 4 PV (M)320.19333.21346.62
Year 5 PV (M)344.29361.88380.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,764.087,109.587,469.06
Equity Value (M)8,173.488,565.478,972.77
Shares Outstanding (M)143.98143.98143.98
Fair Value$56.77$59.49$62.32
Upside / Downside56.73%64.25%72.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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