Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$217.56 - $393.89$291.04
Multi-Stage$170.22 - $185.79$177.87
Blended Fair Value$234.45
Current Price$323.58
Upside-27.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.23%-6.01%0.390.000.000.001.182.191.911.591.261.02
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-45.84%14.25%20.58%26.25%23.65%40.84%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.38%6.80%1.66%1.35%1.28%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,071.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)659.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,412.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)814.20508.88305.33
Cash Retained (M)3,412.003,412.003,412.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-814.20-508.88-305.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,597.802,903.133,106.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)275.50275.50275.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.4310.5411.28
LTM Dividend per Share2.392.392.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.4310.5411.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.8212.9313.67
WACC / Discount Rate11.13%11.13%11.13%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Fair Value$217.56$291.04$393.89
Upside / Downside-32.76%-10.06%21.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,071.004,331.514,608.694,903.605,217.395,551.265,717.80
Payout Ratio16.19%30.95%45.71%60.48%75.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)659.001,340.612,106.752,965.463,925.444,996.145,288.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.13%11.13%11.13%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)1,195.051,206.391,217.72
Year 2 PV (M)1,674.091,706.011,738.23
Year 3 PV (M)2,100.592,160.952,222.45
Year 4 PV (M)2,478.682,574.102,672.24
Year 5 PV (M)2,812.222,948.193,089.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,635.9738,407.2340,246.34
Equity Value (M)46,896.6149,002.8651,186.35
Shares Outstanding (M)275.50275.50275.50
Fair Value$170.22$177.87$185.79
Upside / Downside-47.39%-45.03%-42.58%

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