Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PTT Public Company Limited (PTT-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.87 - $49.48$38.55
Multi-Stage$56.09 - $61.53$58.76
Blended Fair Value$48.65
Current Price$33.25
Upside46.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.22%1.82%2.892.193.022.751.812.862.992.591.571.54
YoY Growth--31.85%-27.41%9.50%52.00%-36.54%-4.33%15.17%65.58%1.78%-36.20%
Dividend Yield--9.02%6.49%9.58%7.16%4.42%9.29%6.22%4.70%4.05%5.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73,943.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58,113.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,829.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,788.659,242.915,545.74
Cash Retained (M)15,829.5115,829.5115,829.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,788.65-9,242.91-5,545.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,040.866,586.6010,283.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28,482.4728,482.4728,482.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.230.36
LTM Dividend per Share2.042.042.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.230.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.082.272.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Fair Value$29.87$38.55$49.48
Upside / Downside-10.17%15.93%48.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73,943.2574,548.2675,158.2375,773.1976,393.1877,018.2579,328.79
Payout Ratio78.59%80.87%83.16%85.44%87.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58,113.7460,290.0762,498.1464,738.3067,010.9369,316.4273,379.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Year 1 PV (M)55,912.7756,472.9157,033.06
Year 2 PV (M)53,752.3454,834.7455,927.93
Year 3 PV (M)51,636.4953,204.0154,802.93
Year 4 PV (M)49,568.5551,584.9653,662.26
Year 5 PV (M)47,551.2449,981.3452,509.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,339,039.411,407,470.761,478,671.68
Equity Value (M)1,597,460.801,673,548.711,752,607.64
Shares Outstanding (M)28,482.4728,482.4728,482.47
Fair Value$56.09$58.76$61.53
Upside / Downside68.68%76.71%85.06%

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