Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.75 - $220.58$141.82
Multi-Stage$115.15 - $126.06$120.50
Blended Fair Value$131.16
Current Price$89.66
Upside46.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.67%4.81%3.303.243.173.092.942.762.592.432.302.18
YoY Growth--2.12%2.01%2.54%5.39%6.35%6.72%6.59%5.68%5.46%5.41%
Dividend Yield--3.47%4.37%4.00%3.96%3.61%3.64%2.73%3.04%2.75%2.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)594.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)415.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)178.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)118.8674.2944.57
Cash Retained (M)178.76178.76178.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-118.86-74.29-44.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.90104.48134.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.44119.44119.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.871.12
LTM Dividend per Share3.483.483.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.871.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.984.354.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate2.81%3.81%4.81%
Fair Value$97.75$141.82$220.58
Upside / Downside9.02%58.18%146.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)594.30616.96640.47664.89690.23716.54738.04
Payout Ratio69.92%73.94%77.95%81.97%85.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)415.54456.15499.26545.00593.49644.89682.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate2.81%3.81%4.81%
Year 1 PV (M)422.21426.32430.42
Year 2 PV (M)427.72436.08444.53
Year 3 PV (M)432.16444.89457.87
Year 4 PV (M)435.59452.79470.49
Year 5 PV (M)438.10459.82482.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,597.3912,172.4812,770.16
Equity Value (M)13,753.1714,392.3815,055.87
Shares Outstanding (M)119.44119.44119.44
Fair Value$115.15$120.50$126.06
Upside / Downside28.43%34.40%40.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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