Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.29 - $17.74$14.95
Multi-Stage$19.07 - $20.92$19.97
Blended Fair Value$17.46
Current Price$21.24
Upside-17.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.87%3.61%0.490.540.470.510.230.510.470.500.450.46
YoY Growth---9.46%15.63%-8.57%118.75%-54.29%9.38%-7.25%11.29%-1.59%34.04%
Dividend Yield--2.26%2.03%3.85%3.62%0.74%2.69%1.40%1.29%1.25%1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.702.941.76
Cash Retained (M)15.7015.7015.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.70-2.94-1.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.0012.7613.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.7513.7513.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.931.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.931.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.371.501.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Fair Value$12.29$14.95$17.74
Upside / Downside-42.12%-29.63%-16.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.5023.3723.2523.1223.0022.8823.56
Payout Ratio33.19%44.55%55.91%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.8010.4113.0015.5618.0920.5921.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Year 1 PV (M)9.429.529.61
Year 2 PV (M)10.6410.8611.08
Year 3 PV (M)11.5211.8812.24
Year 4 PV (M)12.1212.6213.13
Year 5 PV (M)12.4813.1313.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)205.96216.64227.75
Equity Value (M)262.15274.64287.61
Shares Outstanding (M)13.7513.7513.75
Fair Value$19.07$19.97$20.92
Upside / Downside-10.24%-5.96%-1.52%

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