Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$126.56 - $217.03$165.67
Multi-Stage$165.33 - $181.02$173.03
Blended Fair Value$169.35
Current Price$217.93
Upside-22.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.48%11.05%5.005.004.684.233.343.332.992.652.412.24
YoY Growth---0.02%6.80%10.66%26.77%0.30%11.41%12.84%9.95%7.62%27.57%
Dividend Yield--2.52%2.65%3.37%2.71%2.48%3.83%2.91%2.35%2.63%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)893.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)449.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)443.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)178.66111.6667.00
Cash Retained (M)443.90443.90443.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-178.66-111.66-67.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)265.24332.24376.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.8089.8089.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.953.704.20
LTM Dividend per Share5.005.005.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.953.704.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.968.709.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate1.78%2.78%3.78%
Fair Value$126.56$165.67$217.03
Upside / Downside-41.93%-23.98%-0.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)893.30918.12943.63969.85996.801,024.491,055.23
Payout Ratio50.31%58.25%66.18%74.12%82.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)449.40534.77624.54718.88817.99922.04976.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate1.78%2.78%3.78%
Year 1 PV (M)489.53494.34499.15
Year 2 PV (M)523.34533.68544.11
Year 3 PV (M)551.44567.85584.59
Year 4 PV (M)574.38597.29620.87
Year 5 PV (M)592.67622.37653.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,115.4712,722.4713,353.56
Equity Value (M)14,846.8315,537.9916,255.52
Shares Outstanding (M)89.8089.8089.80
Fair Value$165.33$173.03$181.02
Upside / Downside-24.13%-20.60%-16.94%

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