Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Phol Dhanya Public Company Limited (PHOL.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.04 - $4.68$3.80
Multi-Stage$4.33 - $4.74$4.53
Blended Fair Value$4.16
Current Price$2.80
Upside48.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.48%5.35%0.220.210.240.300.250.050.000.000.180.16
YoY Growth--4.63%-12.31%-20.08%19.98%400.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%10.00%22.51%
Dividend Yield--7.69%7.79%8.50%7.65%9.06%3.42%0.00%0.00%6.47%4.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.028.144.88
Cash Retained (M)18.5418.5418.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.02-8.14-4.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.5210.4013.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.50202.50202.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Fair Value$3.04$3.80$4.68
Upside / Downside8.43%35.67%67.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.1266.2167.3168.4369.5770.7372.85
Payout Ratio71.53%75.22%78.92%82.61%86.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.5849.8053.1256.5360.0463.6567.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)45.1645.6146.06
Year 2 PV (M)43.6844.5545.43
Year 3 PV (M)42.1543.4244.71
Year 4 PV (M)40.5942.2343.92
Year 5 PV (M)39.0341.0043.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)666.83700.62735.76
Equity Value (M)877.44917.43958.93
Shares Outstanding (M)202.50202.50202.50
Fair Value$4.33$4.53$4.74
Upside / Downside54.75%61.80%69.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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