DDM Analysis: PGR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$900.09 - $3,624.55	$2,395.61
Multi-Stage	$436.57 - $477.70	$456.76
Blended Fair Value	$1,426.19
Current Price	$246.95
Upside	477.52%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-16.33%	-2.77%	1.15	0.40	0.40	6.37	2.64	2.80	1.11	0.67	0.88	0.69
YoY Growth	-	-	188.03%	0.00%	-93.75%	141.55%	-5.61%	150.91%	65.63%	-23.82%	28.59%	-54.78%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.41%	0.19%	0.28%	5.59%	2.76%	3.79%	1.53%	1.10%	2.25%	1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,713.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,870.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7,842.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,142.70	1,339.19	803.51
Cash Retained (M)	7,842.60	7,842.60	7,842.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,142.70	-1,339.19	-803.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,699.90	6,503.41	7,039.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	587.84	587.84	587.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share	9.70	11.06	11.97
LTM Dividend per Share	4.88	4.88	4.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share	9.70	11.06	11.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend	14.58	15.95	16.86
WACC / Discount Rate	7.21%	7.21%	7.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$900.09	$2,395.61	$3,624.55
Upside / Downside	264.48%	870.08%	1,367.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,713.50	11,409.88	12,151.52	12,941.37	13,782.56	14,678.42	15,118.78
Payout Ratio	26.80%	39.44%	52.08%	64.72%	77.36%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,870.90	4,499.78	6,328.29	8,375.50	10,662.10	13,210.58	13,984.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.21%	7.21%	7.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,157.80	4,197.21	4,236.62
Year 2 PV (M)	5,402.94	5,505.85	5,609.74
Year 3 PV (M)	6,607.33	6,797.01	6,990.27
Year 4 PV (M)	7,771.95	8,070.84	8,378.27
Year 5 PV (M)	8,897.77	9,327.53	9,773.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	223,791.61	234,600.83	245,823.75
Equity Value (M)	256,629.41	268,499.27	280,812.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	587.84	587.84	587.84
Fair Value	$436.57	$456.76	$477.70
Upside / Downside	76.78%	84.96%	93.44%

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Fundamentals

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Sector

The Progressive Corporation (PGR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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