Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.15 - $482.00$231.74
Multi-Stage$96.90 - $105.61$101.18
Blended Fair Value$166.46
Current Price$98.32
Upside69.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.98%13.88%4.342.881.911.342.352.161.531.061.571.29
YoY Growth--50.70%51.15%41.91%-42.89%8.89%41.56%44.06%-32.68%21.87%9.09%
Dividend Yield--4.46%2.34%2.61%2.29%3.80%5.30%3.32%2.40%3.51%3.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,690.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,251.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)439.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)538.18336.36201.82
Cash Retained (M)439.80439.80439.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-538.18-336.36-201.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-98.38103.44237.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)526.77526.77526.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.190.200.45
LTM Dividend per Share4.274.274.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.190.200.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.094.474.73
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Fair Value$141.15$231.74$482.00
Upside / Downside43.56%135.70%390.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,690.902,865.003,050.363,247.713,457.833,681.553,791.99
Payout Ratio83.66%84.92%86.19%87.46%88.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,251.102,433.092,629.212,840.533,068.183,313.393,507.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)2,220.942,242.002,263.06
Year 2 PV (M)2,190.702,232.442,274.57
Year 3 PV (M)2,160.402,222.432,285.65
Year 4 PV (M)2,130.072,212.012,296.29
Year 5 PV (M)2,099.742,201.192,306.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,243.6242,187.9744,206.76
Equity Value (M)51,045.4753,298.0455,632.84
Shares Outstanding (M)526.77526.77526.77
Fair Value$96.90$101.18$105.61
Upside / Downside-1.44%2.91%7.41%

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