Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Probiotec Limited (PBP.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.72 - $56.22$52.69
Multi-Stage$13.16 - $14.42$13.78
Blended Fair Value$33.24
Current Price$2.90
Upside1,046.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS33.42%0.00%0.060.050.050.040.060.020.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--32.80%5.69%25.90%-40.96%305.29%18.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.28%2.14%2.11%1.87%3.64%1.31%2.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.682.931.76
Cash Retained (M)13.6513.6513.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.68-2.93-1.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.9710.7211.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)82.8182.8182.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.72$52.69$56.22
Upside / Downside1,545.58%1,716.92%1,838.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.4124.9326.5528.2830.1232.0733.04
Payout Ratio41.70%51.36%61.02%70.68%80.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.7612.8116.2019.9924.2028.8730.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.0512.1712.28
Year 2 PV (M)14.3614.6314.90
Year 3 PV (M)16.6717.1517.63
Year 4 PV (M)18.9919.7220.47
Year 5 PV (M)21.3322.3623.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,006.441,055.051,105.53
Equity Value (M)1,089.841,141.081,194.25
Shares Outstanding (M)82.8182.8182.81
Fair Value$13.16$13.78$14.42
Upside / Downside353.84%375.17%397.31%

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