Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$167.51 - $678.54$286.55
Multi-Stage$105.98 - $115.77$110.78
Blended Fair Value$198.67
Current Price$66.35
Upside199.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.71%12.10%2.252.162.031.931.831.351.091.010.910.82
YoY Growth--4.21%6.51%4.82%6.00%34.85%23.88%8.52%11.21%10.18%14.44%
Dividend Yield--3.15%3.36%3.30%2.79%2.44%2.81%1.54%1.39%1.30%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)533.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)220.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)312.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.6066.6339.98
Cash Retained (M)312.15312.15312.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.60-66.63-39.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)205.55245.52272.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.2395.2395.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.162.582.86
LTM Dividend per Share2.322.322.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.162.582.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.484.905.18
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$167.51$286.55$678.54
Upside / Downside152.46%331.88%922.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)533.01567.66604.56643.85685.70730.27752.18
Payout Ratio41.44%51.15%60.86%70.57%80.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)220.86290.35367.94454.40550.53657.25695.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)265.53268.05270.57
Year 2 PV (M)307.73313.59319.51
Year 3 PV (M)347.55357.52367.69
Year 4 PV (M)385.08399.89415.12
Year 5 PV (M)420.43440.74461.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,365.578,769.639,189.16
Equity Value (M)10,091.8910,549.4211,023.86
Shares Outstanding (M)95.2395.2395.23
Fair Value$105.98$110.78$115.77
Upside / Downside59.73%66.97%74.48%

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