Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$281.75 - $1,450.38$573.67
Multi-Stage$154.87 - $169.45$162.03
Blended Fair Value$367.85
Current Price$53.17
Upside591.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.180.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.14%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,215.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)431.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,784.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)443.07276.92166.15
Cash Retained (M)1,784.161,784.161,784.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-443.07-276.92-166.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,341.081,507.231,618.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)303.77303.77303.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.414.965.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.414.965.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.836.386.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$281.75$573.67$1,450.38
Upside / Downside429.90%978.93%2,627.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,215.362,359.362,512.722,676.042,849.993,035.243,126.29
Payout Ratio19.46%33.57%47.68%61.79%75.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)431.21792.071,198.031,653.412,162.942,731.712,891.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)728.64735.55742.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,013.831,033.141,052.63
Year 3 PV (M)1,287.151,324.101,361.75
Year 4 PV (M)1,548.961,608.531,669.80
Year 5 PV (M)1,799.621,886.541,976.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,666.4942,630.7044,670.08
Equity Value (M)47,044.6949,218.5551,473.50
Shares Outstanding (M)303.77303.77303.77
Fair Value$154.87$162.03$169.45
Upside / Downside191.27%204.73%218.69%

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