Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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USU Software AG (OSP2.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.98 - $28.09$17.61
Multi-Stage$9.23 - $10.05$9.63
Blended Fair Value$13.62
Current Price$16.65
Upside-18.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS5.50%7.65%0.520.500.400.400.400.400.400.350.300.25
YoY Growth--4.52%25.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%14.28%16.66%19.99%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.14%2.21%1.77%1.43%3.17%2.77%1.82%1.64%1.78%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.200.750.45
Cash Retained (M)0.510.510.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.20-0.75-0.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.69-0.240.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.5210.5210.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.020.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.020.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.98$17.61$28.09
Upside / Downside-28.03%5.77%68.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.016.406.817.267.738.238.48
Payout Ratio91.56%91.25%90.94%90.62%90.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.505.846.206.586.987.417.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5.285.335.38
Year 2 PV (M)5.075.175.26
Year 3 PV (M)4.875.015.15
Year 4 PV (M)4.674.855.04
Year 5 PV (M)4.484.704.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)72.8076.3279.97
Equity Value (M)97.18101.37105.72
Shares Outstanding (M)10.5210.5210.52
Fair Value$9.23$9.63$10.05
Upside / Downside-44.54%-42.15%-39.66%

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