Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.86 - $53.51$42.84
Multi-Stage$56.87 - $62.23$59.50
Blended Fair Value$51.17
Current Price$42.47
Upside20.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.78%3.74%1.091.102.324.081.002.162.000.800.780.77
YoY Growth---1.31%-52.48%-43.12%307.52%-53.57%8.00%150.91%2.58%1.31%1.59%
Dividend Yield--2.78%3.58%9.29%15.77%4.58%14.14%9.40%3.71%3.79%4.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)834.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)776.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.80104.2562.55
Cash Retained (M)57.3057.3057.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.80-104.25-62.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)-109.50-46.95-5.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)249.79249.79249.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.44-0.19-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share3.113.113.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.44-0.19-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Fair Value$33.86$42.84$53.51
Upside / Downside-20.26%0.88%25.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)834.00842.23850.53858.92867.40875.95902.23
Payout Ratio93.13%92.50%91.88%91.25%90.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)776.70779.09781.45783.78786.09788.36834.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Year 1 PV (M)715.08722.23729.38
Year 2 PV (M)658.31671.55684.91
Year 3 PV (M)606.03624.40643.13
Year 4 PV (M)557.87580.53603.86
Year 5 PV (M)513.51539.71566.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,155.8311,724.9712,317.10
Equity Value (M)14,206.6314,863.3815,545.36
Shares Outstanding (M)249.79249.79249.79
Fair Value$56.87$59.50$62.23
Upside / Downside33.92%40.11%46.54%

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