Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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One Liberty Properties, Inc. (OLP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.61 - $37.99$28.58
Multi-Stage$27.25 - $29.82$28.51
Blended Fair Value$28.54
Current Price$23.86
Upside19.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%5.00%1.840.000.000.000.000.001.651.521.351.22
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%8.57%12.31%10.28%8.47%
Dividend Yield--7.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.74%6.86%5.78%5.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.724.202.52
Cash Retained (M)14.2414.2414.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.72-4.20-2.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.5210.0411.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.9220.9220.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.480.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.480.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$21.61$28.58$37.99
Upside / Downside-9.42%19.77%59.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.6034.6435.7336.8437.9939.1840.35
Payout Ratio57.61%64.09%70.57%77.04%83.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.3622.2025.2128.3831.7335.2637.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)20.3220.5220.72
Year 2 PV (M)21.1221.5421.96
Year 3 PV (M)21.7722.4123.07
Year 4 PV (M)22.2723.1624.07
Year 5 PV (M)22.6523.7824.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)461.82484.88508.85
Equity Value (M)569.95596.29623.62
Shares Outstanding (M)20.9220.9220.92
Fair Value$27.25$28.51$29.82
Upside / Downside14.21%19.49%24.97%

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