Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$135.87 - $392.21$213.07
Multi-Stage$96.09 - $104.72$100.33
Blended Fair Value$156.70
Current Price$72.97
Upside114.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.67%17.95%3.773.002.722.722.622.372.181.350.840.83
YoY Growth--25.77%10.02%0.25%3.87%10.14%9.18%60.96%60.24%1.65%14.73%
Dividend Yield--3.80%3.76%4.29%3.85%5.16%10.89%3.09%2.37%1.52%2.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,339.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,514.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)825.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)667.80417.38250.43
Cash Retained (M)825.00825.00825.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-667.80-417.38-250.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)157.20407.63574.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)613.80613.80613.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.660.94
LTM Dividend per Share4.104.104.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.660.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.354.765.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$135.87$213.07$392.21
Upside / Downside86.20%192.00%437.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,339.003,556.043,787.184,033.344,295.514,574.724,711.96
Payout Ratio75.29%78.23%81.18%84.12%87.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,514.002,782.013,074.253,392.723,739.604,117.254,358.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,531.152,555.142,579.13
Year 2 PV (M)2,544.812,593.282,642.21
Year 3 PV (M)2,555.182,628.532,703.27
Year 4 PV (M)2,562.462,661.012,762.37
Year 5 PV (M)2,566.832,690.812,819.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,218.6448,451.0150,768.83
Equity Value (M)58,979.0761,579.7864,275.35
Shares Outstanding (M)613.80613.80613.80
Fair Value$96.09$100.33$104.72
Upside / Downside31.68%37.49%43.51%

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