Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.04 - $97.57$81.82
Multi-Stage$119.31 - $130.79$124.94
Blended Fair Value$103.38
Current Price$109.30
Upside-5.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202120202019201820162015201420132012
DPS0.00%0.00%9.320.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)513.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)335.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.6564.1638.50
Cash Retained (M)177.60177.60177.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.65-64.16-38.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.95113.44139.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.8456.8456.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.322.002.45
LTM Dividend per Share5.915.915.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.322.002.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.227.908.35
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$67.04$81.82$97.57
Upside / Downside-38.67%-25.15%-10.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)513.27508.14503.06498.03493.05488.12502.76
Payout Ratio65.40%70.32%75.24%80.16%85.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)335.67357.32378.50399.22419.48439.30465.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)325.81329.14332.46
Year 2 PV (M)314.70321.15327.67
Year 3 PV (M)302.66312.02321.57
Year 4 PV (M)289.99302.01314.39
Year 5 PV (M)276.92291.34306.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,271.335,545.825,831.63
Equity Value (M)6,781.417,101.487,434.09
Shares Outstanding (M)56.8456.8456.84
Fair Value$119.31$124.94$130.79
Upside / Downside9.16%14.31%19.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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