Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (O39.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.46 - $580.19$508.66
Multi-Stage$74.40 - $81.35$77.81
Blended Fair Value$293.24
Current Price$16.31
Upside1,697.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.95%31.63%0.880.830.580.340.320.130.250.370.210.07
YoY Growth--6.80%42.48%69.69%5.25%143.69%-46.94%-32.24%76.27%185.47%30.31%
Dividend Yield--5.12%6.08%4.68%2.76%2.76%1.54%2.24%2.89%2.16%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,199.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,588.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,611.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,639.801,649.88989.93
Cash Retained (M)6,611.006,611.006,611.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,639.80-1,649.88-989.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,971.204,961.135,621.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,524.294,524.294,524.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.101.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.461.461.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.101.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.332.552.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$160.46$508.66$580.19
Upside / Downside883.84%3,018.73%3,457.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,199.0014,056.9414,970.6415,943.7316,980.0718,083.7718,626.29
Payout Ratio49.91%57.93%65.95%73.97%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,588.008,143.229,872.7911,792.8013,920.7016,275.4017,229.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,536.607,608.047,679.48
Year 2 PV (M)8,456.658,617.738,780.32
Year 3 PV (M)9,348.779,617.149,890.60
Year 4 PV (M)10,213.5810,606.3611,010.37
Year 5 PV (M)11,051.6611,585.4612,139.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)289,987.04303,993.53318,536.07
Equity Value (M)336,594.32352,028.27368,036.54
Shares Outstanding (M)4,524.294,524.294,524.29
Fair Value$74.40$77.81$81.35
Upside / Downside356.14%377.06%398.75%

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