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Definitive Analysis

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Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.73 - $41.26$25.99
Multi-Stage$17.03 - $18.58$17.79
Blended Fair Value$21.89
Current Price$12.39
Upside76.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.98%-3.79%0.780.780.780.770.710.580.530.500.460.40
YoY Growth--0.18%0.20%1.19%7.67%22.26%8.94%7.22%8.40%13.88%-64.77%
Dividend Yield--6.47%6.81%6.44%5.67%4.92%5.03%3.11%3.01%2.73%2.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.6114.138.48
Cash Retained (M)7.007.007.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.61-14.13-8.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)-15.61-7.13-1.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.89130.89130.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.05-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.05-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate8.04%8.04%8.04%
Growth Rate3.98%4.98%5.98%
Fair Value$17.73$25.99$41.26
Upside / Downside43.10%109.80%232.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.05118.68124.60130.81137.32144.17148.49
Payout Ratio93.81%93.05%92.29%91.52%90.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106.05110.43114.99119.72124.64129.75137.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.04%8.04%8.04%
Growth Rate3.98%4.98%5.98%
Year 1 PV (M)101.24102.22103.19
Year 2 PV (M)96.6598.52100.40
Year 3 PV (M)92.2694.9497.68
Year 4 PV (M)88.0691.4995.03
Year 5 PV (M)84.0488.1692.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,766.941,853.551,943.53
Equity Value (M)2,229.192,328.892,432.28
Shares Outstanding (M)130.89130.89130.89
Fair Value$17.03$17.79$18.58
Upside / Downside37.46%43.61%49.98%

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