Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVC.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,617.93 - $4,215.70$3,950.73
Multi-Stage$606.09 - $663.10$634.07
Blended Fair Value$2,292.40
Current Price$681.33
Upside236.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS10.77%12.58%7.115.664.824.504.344.264.225.332.892.66
YoY Growth--25.55%17.60%6.94%3.67%1.90%1.08%-20.92%84.66%8.76%22.14%
Dividend Yield--1.04%1.04%1.29%2.06%2.10%2.46%2.83%4.45%1.63%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94,721.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44,140.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)50,581.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,944.2011,840.137,104.08
Cash Retained (M)50,581.0050,581.0050,581.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,944.20-11,840.13-7,104.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)31,636.8038,740.8843,476.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,468.454,468.454,468.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.088.679.73
LTM Dividend per Share9.889.889.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.088.679.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.9618.5519.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,617.93$3,950.73$4,215.70
Upside / Downside137.47%479.86%518.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94,721.00100,877.87107,434.93114,418.20121,855.38129,775.98133,669.26
Payout Ratio46.60%55.28%63.96%72.64%81.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44,140.0055,765.3068,715.3983,113.3899,092.80116,798.38123,644.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)51,818.6552,309.8252,800.99
Year 2 PV (M)59,333.2560,463.3861,604.17
Year 3 PV (M)66,686.3868,600.7170,551.32
Year 4 PV (M)73,880.5976,721.8379,644.24
Year 5 PV (M)80,918.3784,826.7688,884.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,375,654.522,490,399.522,609,536.09
Equity Value (M)2,708,291.762,833,322.022,963,021.54
Shares Outstanding (M)4,468.454,468.454,468.45
Fair Value$606.09$634.07$663.10
Upside / Downside-11.04%-6.94%-2.68%

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